By: Hunter Schmidt
Good afternoon. I have circled in on six games tonight with three breakdowns for you. Let’s get started.
Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee has been one of the best NBA bets this year and odds makers still haven’t given them the respect they deserve. They’re currently 33-20-3 ATS this year and have covered seven out of their last eight games, including five straight on the road. The Bucks could get Nikola Mirotic back tonight which would just give them another option to spread the floor with. Indiana looked like they were going to regress after Victor Oladipo was lost for the year to injury, but they’ve bounced back with six straight wins. With that being said, those victories have come against teams that are struggling this season (Heat, Pelicans, Lakers, Clippers, Cavaliers and Hornets). Tonight is going be a tough match-up with a Milwaukee team that will be out for revenge after losing at Indiana back in December. Shout out to Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) for this next stat. Milwaukee is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with a +19.5 winning margin in revenge games this season. I like the way Indiana has been playing and it speaks volume to the type of coach they have in Nate McMillan. This Milwaukee team just brings a different level of talent than what the Pacers seen in recent weeks and Milwaukee is my current pick to win the Eastern Conference.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
Clemson Tigers (-2) @ Miami Hurricanes
Clemson has been one of the hottest ATS bets in the country over the last few weeks. They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games which includes a win over Virginia Tech (without Robinson). Clemson has owned Miami in this series of late including a 7-2-1 ATS record in the last 10 match-ups. Clemson is also 15-2 SU in games this year when they are the favorite while Miami is 0-9 as the underdog. This is one of the worst teams that Jim Larranaga has ever had at Miami, partially due to the suspension of Dewan Hernandez who averaged 11.4 points and 6.7 rebounds last year. Miami just doesn’t have the depth to compete in the ACC this year with only eight scholarship players. Miami is just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games. Clemson is trending up while Miami’s season has gone the other way. Give me the better rebounding and defensive team on the road.
The Pick: Clemson -2
South Florida (+7.5) @ Central Florida
For those of you who follow me on the Action Network, you know South Florida is one of my favorite teams in the country. They’re 17-6 ATS this year including a 6-0 mark on the road. UCF has dominated this series in recent years going 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10. This is a different South Florida team with a different coach this year. Brian Gregory is doing big things at South Florida. South Florida comes into this game covering nine out of their last eleven while UCF has struggled, going just 2-6 ATS in their last eight. More troubling for them is the 0-4-1 record at home in their last five games at CFE Arena. South Florida almost got caught looking ahead to this game against East Carolina on Sunday, but I think they’ll come ready to play in a rivalry game that has likely been circled on the schedule for weeks. These are two really good defensive teams and the total in this game currently sits just below 130. South Florida scoring a lot of points in a rivalry game with a low total just seems off, so I’ll take the bait and continue riding their wave of ATS success.
The Pick: South Florida +7.5
A few extra picks for tonight:
South Carolina/Tennessee (Over 149)
Missouri State (-3)
Creighton ML (-110)
Cover photo via: Matt Marton/USA Today Sports
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